South Africa Coalition Crisis: Warning Ahead of 2026 Elections

South Africa's municipal political landscape could become increasingly complicated after the November 4 local government elections, with new research warning that fragmented voter support may produce more councils without an outright majority.

The warning comes from the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA), which released its 2026 Coalitions Barometer on October 7.

The research highlights the challenges political parties face when forming and maintaining coalition governments at municipal level, particularly as voter support becomes divided among a growing number of parties.

80 Municipalities, 175 Administrations

According to findings discussed by MISTRA researcher Dr Laurence Caromba in an October 8 Moneyweb interview, 80 municipalities have experienced hung councils since the 2021 local government elections, resulting in 175 different administrations.

However, the findings also reveal a more complicated picture of coalition stability.

Approximately one-third of the coalitions established after the 2021 elections remained substantially unchanged during the research period, while another third underwent restructuring without replacing the leading party.

The remaining third experienced more significant changes in political control.

ANC and DA Face Local Political Challenges

Despite cooperating nationally through the Government of National Unity, the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) continue to compete intensely for control of municipal governments.

The MISTRA report indicates that cooperation at national level has not translated into similar coalition arrangements locally.

This raises questions about how parties will negotiate agreements if the November elections produce more municipalities without clear majorities.

What Coalition Instability Means for Residents

Frequent changes in municipal leadership can create uncertainty over budgets, development priorities and the continuity of local programmes.

Residents depend on municipalities for essential services, including water, sanitation, refuse collection and local infrastructure.

However, the MISTRA research did not establish a clear statistical relationship between the number of coalition collapses and poorer municipal audit outcomes.

This distinction is important: political instability creates governance risks, but its effects on service delivery must be assessed using evidence rather than assumptions.

November 4 Elections Approach

South Africans are scheduled to vote in local government elections on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has declared election day a public holiday, allowing eligible registered voters an opportunity to participate.

As campaigning intensifies, political parties face growing pressure to demonstrate how they intend to establish stable administrations and improve municipal performance.

The central question is whether the next generation of municipal coalitions will deliver more effective governance or repeat the political disputes that have characterised parts of the previous electoral term.

SA360 NEWS will continue following developments ahead of South Africa's 2026 local government elections.

Sources: MISTRA 2026 Coalitions Barometer coverage by Moneyweb (8 October 2026), Daily Maverick (7 October 2026), and the South African Presidency.